The Securities Litigation Expert Blog

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - December 2017 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Dec 18, 2017 11:09:30 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 2.37 at the end of October.  This is another new all-time high.  Complacency rules the markets as investors embrace risk assets with perceived impunity.

New FINRA arbitration claim filings continue to run at cycle-lows, as they have for the past four years. The current annualized rate is 3,418 for 2017.  

Historically, high readings from this indicator have presaged market declines.

 

 AAI + Forward Return-3.jpg

FINRA Arbitration Claims v. S&P 500-3.jpg

 

For a higher resolution version of these images, click here.

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - August 2017 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Aug 21, 2017 7:41:44 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 2.26 at the end of July.  This is another new all-time high watermark.  The reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by the new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

New FINRA arbitration claim filings are running at an annualized rate of 3,362 for 2017.  This level of filings would be near the lowest for the annual records we have (our data begin in 1991).  The low of 3,238 came at year-end 2007.

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

 

 AAI + Forward Return-2.jpg

FINRA Arbitration Claims v. S&P 500-2.jpg

 

For a higher resolution version of these images, click here.

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - April 2017 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

May 23, 2017 7:23:24 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 2.17 at the end of March.  This is near the all-time high level of 2.20 from last month.  The reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by the new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

New FINRA arbitration claim filings are running at an annualized rate of 3,180 for 2017.  This level of filings would be the lowest for the annual records we have (our data begin in 1991).  The previous low of 3,238 came at year-end 2007.

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

 AAI + Forward Return-1.jpg

 

FINRA Arbitration Claims v. S&P 500-1.jpg

For a higher resolution version of these images, click here.

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - March 2017 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Apr 24, 2017 7:59:08 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 2.20 at the end of February.  This is an all-time high level and surpasses the previous year-end high of 2.06 from 1999 and last month's new high of 2.14.   The reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by the new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Possibly more important is that new FINRA arbitration claim filings are running at an annualized rate of 2,982 for 2017.  This level of filings would be the lowest for the records we have (our data begin in 1991).  The previous low of 3,238 came at year-end 2007.

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.AAI + Forward Return.jpg

 

 

FINRA Arbitration Claims v. S&P 500.jpg

For a higher resolution version of these images, click here.

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - January 2017 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Mar 7, 2017 8:02:49 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 2.14 at the end of January.  This is an all-time high level and surpases the previous high of 2.06 from year-end 1999.   The reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by the new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Possibly more important is that new FINRA arbitration claim filings are running at an annualized rate of 2,712 for 2017.  This level of filings would be the lowest for the records we have (our data begin in 1991).  The previous low of 3,238 came at year-end 2007.

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

AAI + Forward Return.bmp

FINRA Arbitration Claims v. S&P 500.bmp

For a higher resolution version of these images, click here.

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - September 2015 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Oct 12, 2015 2:20:00 PM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 1.657 at the end of September.  This is down from 1.932 in our May reading.  Although it has fallen, this reading still reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by relative highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Possibly more important is that FINRA arbitration claim filings are now running at an annualized rate of 3,347 for 2015.  This level of filings would be the second lowest since the all time low of 3,238 in 2007.  (Our records begin in 1991.)

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

For a higher resolution version of this image, click here.

 

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - June 2015 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Jun 16, 2015 7:06:00 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator has reached 1.932.  This reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Possibly more important is that FINRA arbitration claim filings are now down 60 percent from their previous high in 2009.  This decline is the second most severe over the 25 years for which we have records.  The only greater decline was 63.8 percent reached in 2007.

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

For a higher resolution version of this image, click here.

 6.16.15_Accelerant_Arbitration_Market_Indicator

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - May 2015 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

May 8, 2015 12:02:00 PM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator has reached 1.901, a level that now exceeds the 1998 print.  This reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

For a higher resolution version of this image, click here.

 Accelerant_Arbitration_Market_Indicator

 

Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - Year-end 2014 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Feb 2, 2015 8:49:00 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator has printed at 1.744, and is approaching the level set in 1998.  This reading reflects a low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

For a higher resolution version of this image, click here.

 Accelerant_Arbitration_Indicator_-_12.14_Update

 

Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

Analysis of FINRA Arbitrator James H. Frank Decisions

Posted by Jack Duval

Mar 27, 2014 3:34:04 PM

FINRA has permanently disqualified arbitrator James H. Frank for making material misrepresentations on his arbitrator disclosure form.  See the Reuter's story here.

Accelerant has analyzed Mr. Frank's publicly available awards.  The analysis can be found by clicking on the screenshot below.  Please note that you can get the case information by putting your pointer over the blue bars. If you click on the blue bars you will be taken to the respective Arbitration Award.

James_Frank_Tableau_Screenshot

 

Accelerant (http://www.accelerant.biz) is a securities litigation consulting firm specializing in large and complex cases. Our experts have industry, academic, and regulatory experience and bring broad and deep securities and regulatory knowledge as well as analytic rigor to their work.

Accelerant’s clients value our ability to communicate complex ideas simply, our reputation for unbiased, independent, and high quality analysis, and our commitment to a highly responsive work ethic. Headquartered in New York City, Accelerant also serves clients from our Hong Kong and London offices.


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Topics: FINRA Arbitration, James H. Frank

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