The Securities Litigation Expert Blog

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - December 2017 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Dec 18, 2017 11:09:30 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 2.37 at the end of October.  This is another new all-time high.  Complacency rules the markets as investors embrace risk assets with perceived impunity.

New FINRA arbitration claim filings continue to run at cycle-lows, as they have for the past four years. The current annualized rate is 3,418 for 2017.  

Historically, high readings from this indicator have presaged market declines.

 

 AAI + Forward Return-3.jpg

FINRA Arbitration Claims v. S&P 500-3.jpg

 

For a higher resolution version of these images, click here.

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For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - August 2017 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Aug 21, 2017 7:41:44 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 2.26 at the end of July.  This is another new all-time high watermark.  The reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by the new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

New FINRA arbitration claim filings are running at an annualized rate of 3,362 for 2017.  This level of filings would be near the lowest for the annual records we have (our data begin in 1991).  The low of 3,238 came at year-end 2007.

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

 

 AAI + Forward Return-2.jpg

FINRA Arbitration Claims v. S&P 500-2.jpg

 

For a higher resolution version of these images, click here.

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - April 2017 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

May 23, 2017 7:23:24 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 2.17 at the end of March.  This is near the all-time high level of 2.20 from last month.  The reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by the new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

New FINRA arbitration claim filings are running at an annualized rate of 3,180 for 2017.  This level of filings would be the lowest for the annual records we have (our data begin in 1991).  The previous low of 3,238 came at year-end 2007.

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

 AAI + Forward Return-1.jpg

 

FINRA Arbitration Claims v. S&P 500-1.jpg

For a higher resolution version of these images, click here.

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - March 2017 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Apr 24, 2017 7:59:08 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 2.20 at the end of February.  This is an all-time high level and surpasses the previous year-end high of 2.06 from 1999 and last month's new high of 2.14.   The reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by the new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Possibly more important is that new FINRA arbitration claim filings are running at an annualized rate of 2,982 for 2017.  This level of filings would be the lowest for the records we have (our data begin in 1991).  The previous low of 3,238 came at year-end 2007.

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.AAI + Forward Return.jpg

 

 

FINRA Arbitration Claims v. S&P 500.jpg

For a higher resolution version of these images, click here.

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - January 2017 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Mar 7, 2017 8:02:49 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 2.14 at the end of January.  This is an all-time high level and surpases the previous high of 2.06 from year-end 1999.   The reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by the new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Possibly more important is that new FINRA arbitration claim filings are running at an annualized rate of 2,712 for 2017.  This level of filings would be the lowest for the records we have (our data begin in 1991).  The previous low of 3,238 came at year-end 2007.

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

AAI + Forward Return.bmp

FINRA Arbitration Claims v. S&P 500.bmp

For a higher resolution version of these images, click here.

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - September 2015 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Oct 12, 2015 2:20:00 PM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator was 1.657 at the end of September.  This is down from 1.932 in our May reading.  Although it has fallen, this reading still reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by relative highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Possibly more important is that FINRA arbitration claim filings are now running at an annualized rate of 3,347 for 2015.  This level of filings would be the second lowest since the all time low of 3,238 in 2007.  (Our records begin in 1991.)

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

For a higher resolution version of this image, click here.

 

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator and securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - June 2015 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

Jun 16, 2015 7:06:00 AM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator has reached 1.932.  This reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Possibly more important is that FINRA arbitration claim filings are now down 60 percent from their previous high in 2009.  This decline is the second most severe over the 25 years for which we have records.  The only greater decline was 63.8 percent reached in 2007.

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

For a higher resolution version of this image, click here.

 6.16.15_Accelerant_Arbitration_Market_Indicator

 Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator - May 2015 Update

Posted by Jack Duval

May 8, 2015 12:02:00 PM

The Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator has reached 1.901, a level that now exceeds the 1998 print.  This reading reflects an extremely low level of investor fear (represented by low number of FINRA arbitration claim filings) and a high level of investor greed (represented by new highs on the S&P 500 Index.)

Historically, low levels of fear and high levels of greed have come before market corrections.  Caveat emptor.

For a higher resolution version of this image, click here.

 Accelerant_Arbitration_Market_Indicator

 

Get Updates on the Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator

 

For more information about AAMI creator Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: Jack Duval, Accelerant Arbitration Market Indicator, FINRA Arbitration, Securities Expert

Litigation Alert: Now Batting - Shale Bonds

Posted by Jack Duval

Mar 19, 2015 7:44:00 AM

The collapse in oil prices has been felt throughout the oil and gas industry, but nowhere as much as the in the high cost shale producers.

Goldman Sachs has produced a matrix of shale players according to their balance sheet and asset quality (HT ZeroHedge):

ScreenShot2015-03-19at7.47.13AM

I've charted the bond prices of the Group Four companies (Low Quality Assets/Weak Balance Sheets):

(For a high res image, download this.)

ShaleBondPrices

The bonds of these highly leveraged shale players have performed in line with their speculative characteristics.  There is no recovery in sight because the only hope they have of making their bond payments is by producing more oil, which will continue to depress prices, which will make these firms less profitable, and less able to make their bond payments...

The gears have reversed and barring some geopolicital event, are unlikely to reverse again before many of these players exit the corporate gene pool.

__________

For information about securities expert Jack Duval, click here.

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Topics: shale oil, bonds, securities litigation, fixed income, Securities Expert

Accelerant Weekly Link Roundup

Posted by Jack Duval

Mar 4, 2015 6:31:00 AM

Accelerant's Weekly Link Roundup

Interesting reads from the past week:

  • Scientists Explore How a Zombie Invasion Would Play Out in the US (Vox)
  • Corruption Crackdown Costs: Macau Casino Revenue Drops 53% (ZeroHedge)
  • Growth of Liquid Alternatives Continue to Outpace Traditional Investments (Alts)
  • Roger Federer Rides Aggressive Strategy to Victory over Djokivic (ATP World Tour)
  • Puerto RIco's 3rd Largest Bank Fails (ZeroHedge)
  • Star Trek is Great, and Leonard Nimoy's Spock was the Greatest Thing About It (Vox)
  • Self-Aware? World's Largest Hedge Fund Shifts Strategy to Artificial Intelligence (ZeroHedge)
  • Siberian Crater Saga is More Widespread - and Scarier - Than Anyone Thought (Washington Post)

Chart 1: Assets in Puerto Rico's Commercial Banks Have Shrunk 40% Since 2006

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Topics: securities litigation, Securities Expert

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